If you've been watching this space …

This photo of a flooded driveway in my neighborhood was
posted on facebook yesterday by Casandra Lynn Moffitt.

Here's what became of the storm forecast from a couple of days ago. South of here on the Kenai Peninsula, folks received up to 30 inches of heavy, wet snow. Here it rained for 22 hours straight. And it rained farther to the north around the East Pole as well.  Happy winter. But that isn't even the worst of it.

This headline showed up in yesterday's news after the predicted storm. "Love it or hate it, Alaska's warm winter is predicted to last until breakup." It's posted on facebook as the worst forecast ever. Why? Because it could be the end of East Pole trips until the mud dries sometime in June. I've always bridled at people who just to be contrary say they like lots of snow or lots of rain or any kind of inclemency. Now I am becoming one of them.  I want winter to last until the end of March.

March has always been my favorite time at the East Pole. I've made it a point to get out there for at least a few days every March since I built the cabin almost 30 years ago. Usually there have been clear skies with high temperatures ranging from the teens to the mid 30s. Sub freezing temperatures at night help maintain the snow cover which has compacted over the winter. That combination makes getting around on foot, on snowshoes and with the snowmachine fairly easy and you can go anywhere. The rising afternoon sun that sends its light directly at the west-facing deck creating almost t shirt weather for sitting out and enjoying an afternoon beer.

Having enjoyed the month out there in December, I have been planning to spend another month in March. Some gear is already packed and in the Jeep and even have some new videos and books coming from Amazon. But that trip is all in jeopardy now. The extended forecast calls for high temperatures in the 40s well into the first weekend in March, about two weeks from now. And then that headline showed up, essentially saying this is the end of winter as we know it. We can look forward to warmer than usual weather with lots of rain predicted for the foreseeable future.

On first seeing that headline I had two reactions. Oddly the first was an almost relaxing feeling as I looked around here and realized, well I am living here now and I had better make the best of it. It was like the stress of planning, packing and going had been relieved and instead of looking forward to something, I could live in the moment. For weeks it's like I have just been waiting for the time I could get back out to the Pole and now I have to look toward actually living here. But then the other, more disheartening thought came to mind. I might not be able to go. The trail may be too bad to travel or I could get out there and get stuck there.

But then the thought went to a broader vision of cosmic proportions. Is this the first effect of climate change on the individual, at least in the north? Am I the first one who has to adjust plans, changing the thought process about what winter entails and what that means for the way I live? To be sure there are some aspects of this particular winter that would temper the idea of permanent change, principal among them being the huge El Nino that affected West Coast weather this year. But what if it is going to be this way from now on. Over the past few years there have been several warm, wet spells in January and February and as one friend says, "anything that happens twice in a row is normal."

Then there was the worst thought of all. In being unable to get to a place where I am psychologically centered, I am somehow trapped in this gray, snowless habitat with no outlet. In essence my escape route has been cut off and there is no detour around the obstacle. Now, that's when climate change becomes personal.

Come on guys, is it going to snow or what?
Alaska's winter, so wrong in so many ways